New Delhi: In the offices of the Delhi bookies,
there was frenzied activity on Thursday night to reverse the bets people
had placed at the beginning of February.
At the beginning of the month, convinced that the Narendra Modi-Kiran Bedi combine would sweep the election, punters bet heavily on the BJP winning 40-41 seats. But on the eve of the election, bookies have reversed the odds, putting the AAP ahead, giving it 35-36 seats against 30-31 to the BJP, triggering panic among those who had put their money on saffron.
Those who follow elections closely, believe that bookies generally get the trend right. The last time they read an election wrong was in 2012, when the Akali Dal won the assembly polls in Punjab in spite of opinion polls and bookies predicting a rout.
Can Delhi turn out to be another Punjab? Is there still some hope for those predicted to lose the election and money?
Yes, there is.
There are very good reasons why BJP may yet snatch victory at the polling booth, and destroy Arvind Kejriwal’s dream.
One, the AAP vote is fragmented across constituencies. In the 2013 election, the AAP had won most of its seats in the urban areas of Delhi and its vote was concentrated in central Delhi. So, in spite of getting just four percent more votes from the Congress, the AAP won 20 more seats.
Opinion polls this year are suggesting that the AAP vote share will go up by nearly 10 percent. But what if this gain is only in areas where it had fared badly in the 2013 election?
Take, for instance, Najafgarh in outer Delhi. In the 2013 election, the BJP won in Najafgarh and the Indian National Lok Dal candidate came second. The AAP got just 15 percent votes. Statistically, even if jhadoo gains 10 per cent votes in Najafgarh, it will still lose the election.
Similarly, in the Muslim-dominated Okhla seat, the AAP had lost in 2013 by nearly 26,000 votes, getting just 17 percent of the vote. To win this seat in a triangular contest with the Congress and the BJP, the AAP needs to gain at least 25 percent of the vote.
The danger is clear: the AAP may indeed gain lots of votes in areas where it didn’t have a significant presence in 2013. But if all the incremental gains are made in constituencies where it is facing a huge deficit, the party will still end up losing those seats.
Two, the BJP cadre and poll machinery amp up their ground game on Election Day. The AAP is ahead in the opinion polls because its volunteers worked relentlessly in Delhi for nearly three months while the BJP workers dreamt of another Modi wave.
But the opinion polls have forced them out of their complacency and the BJP is now fighting for each and every vote.
When Prime Minister Modi argued that some of the surveys conducted by ‘bazaaru’ people could be wrong at his rally in Ambedkar Nagar, his main target was the BJP worker whose morale he wanted to lift, assuring him that all is not lost.
The reenergized cadre has gone back to the battlefield and if it manages to bring its committed voters to the booths, the election could still swing in BJP’s favour.
Three, the Rahul-Lalu syndrome. In the 2014 election, the media made a lot of noise about the revival of Lalu Yadav in Bihar. His rallies were attracting huge crowds, the mood among his supporters was of jubilant optimism and surveys were predicting a better show.
In the end, Lalu won just four seats.
Similarly, Rahul Gandhi attracted huge crowds at his road-shows and rallies in the UP elections, prompting the party and the media to believe that the Congress was on the verge of revival. But in the end, the Congress lost badly, failing to repeat its 2009 Lok Sabha performance.
Yes, Kejriwal’s rallies in Delhi have indeed been impressive; the numbers in fact have risen steadily as the campaign gained momentum. But there is no guarantee that the crowd on the streets will translate into votes at the booth.
Four, Modi nostalgia. Just a few months ago, almost every second person voted for Modi. Many of them still consider him their hero. Aware of Modi’s popularity, Kejriwal has refrained from attacking the PM.
It is apparent that the Delhi voter sees no contradiction in rooting for Modi and voting for Kejriwal; he thinks that both are good choices for different jobs. Thus the popular sentiment: Modi for PM and Kejriwal for CM.
But political two-timing is a difficult art. What if the sight of the beloved lotus in the voting booth inspires second thoughts? Those who supported the PM in May could well decide to stand by their man on polling day.
At the beginning of the month, convinced that the Narendra Modi-Kiran Bedi combine would sweep the election, punters bet heavily on the BJP winning 40-41 seats. But on the eve of the election, bookies have reversed the odds, putting the AAP ahead, giving it 35-36 seats against 30-31 to the BJP, triggering panic among those who had put their money on saffron.
Those who follow elections closely, believe that bookies generally get the trend right. The last time they read an election wrong was in 2012, when the Akali Dal won the assembly polls in Punjab in spite of opinion polls and bookies predicting a rout.
The cat is not in the bag yet: PTI
Yes, there is.
There are very good reasons why BJP may yet snatch victory at the polling booth, and destroy Arvind Kejriwal’s dream.
One, the AAP vote is fragmented across constituencies. In the 2013 election, the AAP had won most of its seats in the urban areas of Delhi and its vote was concentrated in central Delhi. So, in spite of getting just four percent more votes from the Congress, the AAP won 20 more seats.
Opinion polls this year are suggesting that the AAP vote share will go up by nearly 10 percent. But what if this gain is only in areas where it had fared badly in the 2013 election?
Take, for instance, Najafgarh in outer Delhi. In the 2013 election, the BJP won in Najafgarh and the Indian National Lok Dal candidate came second. The AAP got just 15 percent votes. Statistically, even if jhadoo gains 10 per cent votes in Najafgarh, it will still lose the election.
Similarly, in the Muslim-dominated Okhla seat, the AAP had lost in 2013 by nearly 26,000 votes, getting just 17 percent of the vote. To win this seat in a triangular contest with the Congress and the BJP, the AAP needs to gain at least 25 percent of the vote.
The danger is clear: the AAP may indeed gain lots of votes in areas where it didn’t have a significant presence in 2013. But if all the incremental gains are made in constituencies where it is facing a huge deficit, the party will still end up losing those seats.
Two, the BJP cadre and poll machinery amp up their ground game on Election Day. The AAP is ahead in the opinion polls because its volunteers worked relentlessly in Delhi for nearly three months while the BJP workers dreamt of another Modi wave.
But the opinion polls have forced them out of their complacency and the BJP is now fighting for each and every vote.
When Prime Minister Modi argued that some of the surveys conducted by ‘bazaaru’ people could be wrong at his rally in Ambedkar Nagar, his main target was the BJP worker whose morale he wanted to lift, assuring him that all is not lost.
The reenergized cadre has gone back to the battlefield and if it manages to bring its committed voters to the booths, the election could still swing in BJP’s favour.
Three, the Rahul-Lalu syndrome. In the 2014 election, the media made a lot of noise about the revival of Lalu Yadav in Bihar. His rallies were attracting huge crowds, the mood among his supporters was of jubilant optimism and surveys were predicting a better show.
In the end, Lalu won just four seats.
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Similarly, Rahul Gandhi attracted huge crowds at his road-shows and rallies in the UP elections, prompting the party and the media to believe that the Congress was on the verge of revival. But in the end, the Congress lost badly, failing to repeat its 2009 Lok Sabha performance.
Yes, Kejriwal’s rallies in Delhi have indeed been impressive; the numbers in fact have risen steadily as the campaign gained momentum. But there is no guarantee that the crowd on the streets will translate into votes at the booth.
Four, Modi nostalgia. Just a few months ago, almost every second person voted for Modi. Many of them still consider him their hero. Aware of Modi’s popularity, Kejriwal has refrained from attacking the PM.
It is apparent that the Delhi voter sees no contradiction in rooting for Modi and voting for Kejriwal; he thinks that both are good choices for different jobs. Thus the popular sentiment: Modi for PM and Kejriwal for CM.
But political two-timing is a difficult art. What if the sight of the beloved lotus in the voting booth inspires second thoughts? Those who supported the PM in May could well decide to stand by their man on polling day.
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